1.Length of Flight...................................
Longer
vs Shorter 2.Destination Airport............ North vs South,East
vs West 3.Arrival Time.....Daytime vs Nighttime,
Evening vs Morning 4.Season .....................Summer
vs Winter, Spring vs Autumn 5.Weather
..................................Hot vs Cold,
Rain vs Shine 6.Something Else
As described in the puzzle formulation, a
certain large airline company 50 years ago conducted a
Grand
Experiment, which called for withholding baggage
to facilitate measurements of the time
interval between flight arrival and first
“complaint” in
Baggage Claim.An astonishing bimodal distribution was
found.
As depicted below, an
interpretation of the Actual Distribution is that statistically two
distinct populations were acting in
superposition.One population accounts for about 70% of
the total number of measurements and appears to
conform reasonably well to the Projected Distribution in the hypothesis,
with its mode at 45 minutes after arrival.
The remaining 30%
of the measurements are shown above as the Discovered Population,
having its mode at 65 minutes after arrival.Another
exclamation point may be appropriate, but let’s
save it for the actual discovery.
f the five factors
offered by the puzzle, none were determined by
Terminal Operations to be the explanation.The
data from the Grand Experiment was organized in
what we call today a 'database' which could be
disaggregated on a "computer," using special software,
which in 1964 took some doing.The
statistics associated with each factor were
analyzed and found to account for spreading the
interval measurements longer and shorter with no
correlations evident – in both
populations.
For example, long-duration flights produced both
earlier and later complaints.Same
for short-duration flights.
One
variable was not controlled: the
time when the
conveyer system was turned on at each
airport!
If the conveyer
system with its carousel in Baggage Claim was
inadvertently powered up early, arriving
passengers will apparently stand there
watching and waiting without complaining – for
an additional 20 minutes.One
might suppose, therefore, that the carousels
should always be turned on before the
first passengers arrive in Baggage Claim.Doing
that would effectively eliminate the 70% of
cases in Projected Distribution
and add them to the 30% of cases in the Discovered Population
as indicated here…
Finally, as shown
below, the cumulative distribution for the Discovered Population
tells an interesting story...
Notice with the
carousels turned on, as much as 20 minutes
can be added to the available time for
baggage handling without producing
complaints. aution
is advised. Terminal
Operations for that airline did take
advantage of the "Proposed Service
Coverage," thereby exploiting the
"pacification" effect of running empty
conveyer systems. The airline
realized considerable savings in requisite
resources at every airport.
As a consequence, though, there was a
risk. Neglecting to turn on the
conveyer system for a given flight could
result in a 60% chance of producing
passenger complaints for that flight.
Solvers
who are interested in the history of this
puzzle
are invited to read The
Grumble Factor.
f the five factors
offered by the puzzle, none were determined by
Terminal Operations to be the explanation.
aution
is advised. Te