Rational Growth

Copyright ©2019 by Paul Niquette. All rights reserved

The puzzle offers us a convenient way to calculate answers to various questions involving exponential growth.  The Doubling-Time formula, which is n = 72 / i does apply a critical assumption, which needs to be made explicit: That i is constant.

Here is a curve that depicts the solution to the Rational Growth puzzle...
     

To use the graph, simply select a growth rate per interval i and the curve gives you the approximation error for the Doubling-Time formula compared to an exponential calculation.  Thus agreement occurs when i ≈ 8 %.  At the 'self-referent' growth rate i = 17.65717 % per year the doubling-time = 72 / 17.65717 = 4.08 years, and the approximation error - 4.4%.


By the way, for a Tripling-Time
formula, simply replace 72 with 114.  Using n = 114 / i, we find that, for example, an enterprise growing at 9 % per year will triple in size in twelve years and eight months, and the error in that estimate is the same as graphed above.




Your puzzle-master graduated from high-school in 1951.  The United States Census Bureau USCB reports that the human population of the world that year was 2,594,939,877, which was 37,311,223 higher than the year before.
Assuming a constant growth rate in population worldwide, in what year did the population double in size: 2 x 2,594,939,877 = 5,189,879,754?
First we calculate the population growth rate for 1951: i = 100 x 37,311,223 / 2,594,939,877 = 1.438% per year. Then we simply use the doubling-time formula: n = 72 / i = 72 / 1.438 = 50.077 years + 1951 2001.  For solvers who like logarithms: n = log 2 / log (1 + i /100) = 48.548 + 1951 ≈ 2000.  That amounts to only a 3% 'approximation' error from the graph.

Now, the USCB reports that the world's population reached 5,189,879,754 during 1988.  So our assumption was wrong.  Oh well, if i were indeed constant, then our use of the Doubling-Time formula retrospectively would make i =  72 / (1988 - 1951) 1.946 % per year.




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