Copyright ©2019 by Paul Niquette. All rights reserved |
he puzzle
offers us a convenient way to calculate answers to
various questions involving exponential growth.
The Doubling-Time formula, which
is n = 72 / i does apply a
critical assumption,
which needs to be made explicit: That i
is constant. Here is a curve that
depicts the solution to the Rational
Growth puzzle...
To use the
graph, simply select a growth rate per
interval i and the curve gives you
the approximation error for the Doubling-Time formula
compared to an exponential calculation. Thus
agreement occurs
when i ≈ 8 %. At the
'self-referent' growth rate i =
17.65717
% per year the doubling-time = 72 / 17.65717 =
4.08 years, and the approximation error ≈ - 4.4%.
our puzzle-master graduated from high-school in 1951. The United States Census Bureau USCB reports that the human population of the world that year was 2,594,939,877, which was 37,311,223 higher than the year before. Assuming a constant growth rate in population worldwide, in what year did the population double in size: 2 x 2,594,939,877 = 5,189,879,754?First we calculate the population growth rate for 1951: i = 100 x 37,311,223 / 2,594,939,877 = 1.438% per year. Then we simply use the doubling-time formula: n = 72 / i = 72 / 1.438 = 50.077 years + 1951 ≈ 2001. For solvers who like logarithms: n = log 2 / log (1 + i /100) = 48.548 + 1951 ≈ 2000. That amounts to only a 3% 'approximation' error from the graph. Now, the USCB reports that the world's
population reached 5,189,879,754
during 1988. So our assumption
was wrong. Oh well, if i were
indeed constant, then our use of the Doubling-Time formula retrospectively
would make i = 72 /
(1988 - 1951) ≈ 1.946 % per year. |
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