There
are
millions of
asteroids in
orbits around the sun. They
appear to be
concentrated in belts. The
main asteroid belt is depicted above as a speckled
red
circle outside the orbit of Mars, far
away from Earth.
Asteroid
orbits are not all that
circular, however.
Kepler's
Laws mandate
that in eccentric
orbits asteroids
must spend more
time loitering
out
there in the
asteroid belt near aphelionthan
falling toward the
sun, whipping
around at perihelion,
and sweeping back out again
to await
observation
by astronomers.
As of this
writing (2017), more than 16,000
asteroids have been classified as Near Earth
Objects (NEOs), which means their eccentric
orbits bring them within 195
Mkm (120
Mmi) of the
sun at perihelion. Meanwhile, the
Earth's orbit is
approximately circular
with a radius of
150 Mkm
(93 Mmi).
Some
NEOs are less worrisome than others:
16
Apohele
asteroids have orbits with aphelions
less than 147 Mkm, thus
they remain completely
inside Earth's orbit.
6,144
Amor
asteroids have perihelions far outside
Earth's orbit.
Of
greatest concern to us earthlings
are these NEOs:
1,191
Aten
asteroids have their orbital centers
and perihelions inside Earth's orbit and their
aphelions outside.
8,837 Apollo
asteroids have their
orbital centers and
aphelions outside
Earth's orbit and
their perihelions inside.
If an Aten or an
Apollo asteroid
arrives at an orbital
intersection at the same
time the Earth happens to be
there, the result can
be a shooting
star or a collision, with a
range of
consequences for
mankind that
depends,
of course, on
the size
of the
asteroid.
An
Apollo
asteroid
struck Earth as the Chelyabinsk
meteor in 2013. It was
about 18 meters in diameter.
The largest Apollo
asteroid, Sisyphus, is
seven kilometers in diameter -- nearly
half the size of the Chicxulub
impactor, which brought the end
of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
It is customary to
view the solar system from
a position in space
that makes
counter-clockwise the
prograde direction for
orbits.
Superimposed
on the Fiorenza illustration above is
a representation of a particular
Apollo-class asteroid with a semimajor
axis about 1.8 times larger than the
radius of the Earth's orbit.
Let's give it the name "Puzzler." Using Kepler's
Third Law, one can estimate Puzzler's
orbital period as 365×1.83/2
= 881 days.
Here is a scenario for
solvers to consider based on the
information at hand...
Let us postulate that
Earth passes New Years Day at
the topmost location in the map
of its orbit. There appear
to be two orbital intersections,
one in mid-August, about 240
days into the year, and the
other in mid-October, some 60
days later.
We might mischievously astrogate
Puzzler
into its orbit inbound toward the sun
and just missing Earth as it passes
through that mid-October
intersection. Whew.
Puzzler
swings past the sun and through its
perihelion, returning to the outbound
intersection with Earth's orbit two
months later. At that time Earth
will fortunately be nearing its farthest
point toward the top of the map.
When Earth arrives at the
mid-August intersection the next year, Puzzler will
have spent 240 days outbound toward
the asteroid belt on its
881-day orbit.
Another 641 days will go by
before Puzzler
will return from the asteroid belt to
the inbound intersection with Earth's
orbit at a location in the upper-right
of the map.
When Puzzler arrives, Earth will
have gone around 2.4 times
(881/365). It will be early-May,
and our planet will be approaching the
bottom-most point on the map.
Sixty-some days later, Puzzler will be
passing through the outbound
intersection, but Earth will still take
another month and a half to get
there. Hooray for that.
So then,
here is the challenge for the Astrogating Asteroids
puzzle...
How
long will it take for Puzzler to
threaten the
next catastrophic
collision with Planet Earth?